On Sunday,  September 14, 2008, I was sitting in my study, looking out the bay window which, on the second story, put me right at tree-top level.  That’s when the remnants of Hurricane Ike whipped the lace bark elms into a frenzy so frightening I took cover.  The wind storm of 2008 killed four people, knocked out electricity for thousands for days, and toppled trees  across parts of Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky.

Hurricane Ike's path (image credit: NOAA)

That’s why I took note today when scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their latest outlook for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, August through October.  They say there’s a 90% chance that hurricane activity will be “above normal,” likely spawning four to six major hurricanes rather than the average two.  Why?  The conditions are ripe: much higher than normal sea surface temperatures combined with other climate factors like La Niña (which affects wind patterns).  Conditions change from year to year, but we’ve had “above normal” storm seasons since 1995.

What’s more, scientists with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its 2007 fourth Assessment Report, have found strong evidence that climate change has been fueling the intensity, length, and frequency of hurricanes – in part because of that rising sea surface temperature – and devoted an entire section (note: opens a .pdf; see section 3.8.3) to it.

So, do predictions for a big hurricane season spell doom for Ohio, Indiana, or Kentucky?  Not necessarily.  But they’re another reminder that extreme weather is likely here to stay.

- Kristin Espeland Gourlay